Total U.S. employment grew by 11,767,000, or 8.5%, in the 20 years ending in December 2020. All that growth, 11,879,000, or 101% of the total was due to increased employment of people age 60 and older. Meanwhile, the net employment change over the past two decades of people ages 16-59 was -112,000 (-1% of the total change), despite this younger group being 3.8 times as large as the older group in December 2000 and still 2.4 times as large in December 2020 per the latest Bureau of Labor statistics.
Seniors Enjoying New Careers
This age-based labor-market outcome was the result of two main differences between these groups: 1) The older population (60 and older) grew much faster than the younger population (16-59), and 2) The employment-to-population (E-P) ratio among those 60 and older increased significantly while the E-P ratio among the younger population declined.
With the exception of the large decline in the E-P ratio of the younger population, the basic trend of rising employment among older workers is likely to continue for some time for the following reasons: 1) the older population is likely to continue growing faster than the younger group, and 2) the E-P ratio of the 60 and older group is likely to increase further as the health and educational attainment of older people continues to improve and the demand for older workers persists per the last Census Bureau statistics.
The aging of the population and diverging employment rates across age groups together resulted in a sharp skewing of employment growth toward older workers during the last two decades. Continued population aging is almost certain, and signs point toward further increases in the E-P ratio among older adults. The greatest source of uncertainty of the future workforce is the direction of change of the E-P ratio among working-age people under 60. Article compliments of William Emmons, VP and Economist at St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
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